On Sunday, November 23, 2025, at 4:05 p.m. ET, the Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4) will host the Arizona Cardinals (3-7) at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona — a matchup that could be the most lucrative fantasy football opportunity of the season. Despite being slight favorites (1.5 to 2.5 points depending on the book), the real story isn’t who’s likely to win — it’s how many points fantasy managers can extract from this collision of chaos and collapse.
Lawrence’s Rollercoaster: Turnovers and Touchdowns in Equal Measure
Last week, in a game that’s already been rewritten as a retrospective thriller, Trevor Lawrence delivered one of the most bizarre stat lines in recent NFL memory: 256 yards, three touchdowns, four turnovers, and 29 rushing yards. One strip-sack became a Cardinals touchdown. Another interception killed a red-zone drive. A third led to an easy Arizona score. Yet somehow, he still finished as the QB7 for the week with 20.1 fantasy points. That’s not skill — it’s entropy with cleats. The Jaguars’ offense isn’t pretty. By EPA per play, they rank among the league’s worst passing units. But here’s the twist: when Lawrence throws, he throws often. And when he throws, someone usually catches it. Jakobi Meyers, his favorite target last week, caught five of six targets. That’s not elite efficiency — it’s volume born of desperation.Arizona’s Defense: The Fantasy Gift That Keeps on Giving
The Arizona Cardinals defense isn’t just bad — it’s statistically broken. They’ve allowed 44 and 41 points in their last two games, both to divisional rivals. Opponents are averaging 4.3 yards per carry. They’ve given up 181 rushing yards to the Seahawks just days before this matchup. And yet, analysts keep pointing to their six 20+ yard runs allowed as proof they’re “not as bad as they look.” That’s like saying a leaky boat is fine because it’s only sunk three times this season. What’s worse? They’re trending down. The secondary is thin. The linebackers are slow. And their pass rush? Nonexistent. The Jacksonville Jaguars offense, despite its flaws, has found rhythm through the air in recent weeks — and Arizona has no answer.
Fantasy Gold: Who to Start, Who to Avoid
Fantasy analysts aren’t just recommending plays — they’re laying out a blueprint.- Travis Etienne (Over 46.5 rushing yards): The Jaguars’ bell cow has been consistent, even when the passing game sputters. Arizona allows 145 rushing yards per game over the last four weeks. Etienne’s ceiling? 150+ yards and a touchdown.
- Jakobi Meyers (Over 4.5 receptions): He’s Lawrence’s safety blanket. In the last two games, he’s seen 11 and 12 targets. With Greg Dortch out and the Cardinals’ slot coverage porous, Meyers is a lock.
- Trey McBride (Over 75.5 receiving yards): The Cardinals’ tight end has been their only consistent red-zone threat. Jacksonville allows the fifth-most fantasy points to TEs this season. McBride could be the difference-maker in tight leagues.
The Bigger Picture: Wild Card Implications and Coaching Survival
This isn’t just about fantasy points. The Jacksonville Jaguars are clinging to an AFC Wild Card spot. A loss here — especially at home — could derail their playoff hopes. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ coaching staff is on the clock. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph is rumored to be on the verge of being fired after allowing 85 points in two games. Desperation breeds mistakes. And mistakes mean big plays. The oddsmakers are split. FOX Sports predicts a 27-21 Jaguars win. Action Network leans Cardinals +3. ESPN, in a rare outlier, forecasts an Arizona upset — citing “desperate home performance.” But here’s what matters: the over/under hovers between 46.5 and 47.5. That’s a low total for two teams this offensively mismatched. The under might be tempting — but it’s a trap. This game will be high-scoring because both teams can’t stop anyone.
What’s Really Happening Here?
This isn’t a classic matchup of strengths vs. weaknesses. It’s a collision of dysfunction. The Jaguars’ offense is a mess that somehow works. The Cardinals’ defense is a sieve that somehow still has a pulse. And when you put them together, you get fantasy football nirvana. Travis Etienne doesn’t need to be perfect — he just needs to touch the ball 20 times. Jakobi Meyers doesn’t need to break tackles — he just needs to be open. And Trevor Lawrence? He doesn’t need to be accurate. He just needs to throw — and Arizona will make him look like a genius.Frequently Asked Questions
Why is this game a fantasy goldmine despite the Jaguars’ poor passing efficiency?
Even though the Jaguars rank near the bottom in passing efficiency, they throw the ball more than any other team in neutral game situations — 65% of the time. Arizona’s defense allows the most air yards since Week 6, and their secondary can’t cover anyone. Volume beats efficiency here. Lawrence’s four turnovers last week didn’t stop him from being QB7 — because he threw 30 times. More throws = more fantasy points.
Should I start Trey McBride over Arizona’s other receivers?
Yes. With Greg Dortch ruled out and the Jaguars neutralizing slot receivers, McBride becomes Arizona’s only reliable target in the red zone. Jacksonville allows the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends, and McBride has seen 10+ targets in three of his last four games. He’s the only Cardinal with consistent volume and a realistic shot at a touchdown.
Why do analysts disagree so much on the spread and over/under?
Because this game defies logic. The Jaguars have a strong run game but a shaky passing attack. The Cardinals have a terrible defense but a high-volume offense. Bookmakers are split because no model can predict how many points come from turnovers, special teams, or garbage time. The over/under variance (46.5–47.5) reflects uncertainty — but the underlying trend? High scoring. The under is a risky play.
Is Travis Etienne a safe fantasy starter this week?
Extremely. Arizona allows 145 rushing yards per game over the last four weeks. Etienne has averaged 21 touches per game in the last three, and with Lawrence likely throwing early and often, the Jaguars will control tempo. Even if the passing game falters, Etienne will carry the load. His over 46.5 yards is one of the safest fantasy props this week.
Could the Cardinals actually win this game?
It’s unlikely, but not impossible. Arizona’s offense has shown flashes, and Jacksonville’s turnover-prone offense could gift them a short field. Plus, with coaching staffs on the line, desperation can create magic. But statistically, Arizona has lost five of six games by double digits. Their only wins came against bottom-tier teams. This isn’t a trap game — it’s a reckoning.
What’s the biggest fantasy risk in this matchup?
Greg Dortch. He’s the Cardinals’ top slot receiver, but Jacksonville allows the lowest completion rate (58%) to slot receivers in the NFL. With Lawrence likely throwing short and often, Dortch could be covered by Jags’ nickelback Shaquille Quarterman — who’s held elite slot WRs to under 40 yards in three straight games. Avoid him.
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